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Friday, April 16, 2010

Where to bat Jose Reyes - Part II

I am a firm believer that Jose Reyes should be leading off games. In fact ive expressed this notion since spring training. I think he was put on this earth to bat leadoff for the New York Mets. Apparently im not alone in this notion either. One person who i knew agreed with me was Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com. Or at least that what i thought. In a post today he said hes "warming up to this" when referring to Jose Reyes batting third. Say it aint so Matt! Since i respect and value Matts opinion i decided to rethink it for myself. I havent changed my mind. Im not a statistics nut but i found a lineup analysis tool on-line from baseballmusings.com. I plugged in a lineup with Reyes batting first and one with Reyes batting third.
Here are my two lineups and their projected results.

*For all players i used 2009 statistics except for Jose Reyes and David Wright where i used statistics from 2008

Lineup #1
                    
                           
 Runs per game for above lineup: 4.777


Lineup #2

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.878


I still believe im right as this automatic generator doesnt take into account things like Reyes speed and what it does to the opposing pitcher. Or how he will have less opportunities to steal bases and hit triples. But it was still interesting to see.
By the way, in case you were wondering, here is the Mets optimal lineup (according to baseballmusings) - at least in terms of scoring the most runs. Take what you want from this. At least they agree with me on Luis Castillos spot in the order.

Runs per Game
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5.140
David Wright
Angel Pagan
Fernando Tatis
Jason Bay
Jose Reyes
Rod Barajas
Jeff Francour
Johan santana
Luis Castillo

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