Ya Gotta Believe in the jinx

If youre a Mets fan then you know the mantra "Ya Gotta Believe". Well truth be told im not a huge believer in one thing. The SI cover jinx. But lately Im a believer. Let me backtrack. Things like the SI cover jinx or the Madden cover curse, I believe, are explained fairly simply and logically. The way i see it is that a guy or girl (or group of guys or girls) gets on the cover of SI when one of a number of different things happen. Since its a weekly publication they try to grab a person when they are hot. So for example if a player is hitting .400 in June (like Joe Mauer last year) hes probably going to get on the cover. But all that really means is, that the guy is probably due to slump. Inevitably when the player falters (like Mauer did) people like to "blame it" on SI. In reality Mauer was due for a slump or due to have some hits not fall in. In addition,  theres the little bit of extra pressure to perform because they are now in the spotlight. 

It was with this belief in mind when I picked up my SI in February of 2008.
"Happy Days" was an article about how Johan Santana was going to change the culture of the Mets. Well we know how that season ended. The same as the year before. Thanks a lot SI. The next year they put the Yankees CC Sabathia on the cover. Alright this I can handle. Finally the Yankees will feel what the Mets felt. But i missed something. Who was that in the corner? David Wright. Who did they predict to win the world series? the Mets. Well Wright wound up having the year from hell. And the Mets lost 90 games. 




But this years SI baseball preview really gives a Mets fan something to be excited about. Roy Halladay of the Phillies and CC Sabathia in the corner with a prediction of a repeat of the AL east title. This was something I could believe in. So why didnt i write this piece in the beginning of the year? I was waiting. I was thinking. Bad things had to stop happening to the Mets and the Phillies were due for some bad luck, i thought. And then it started to happen. Big Pelf really does seem to be maturing. Reyes really does seem to be fully recovered. Jerrys move of Reyes to the 3 spot actually seems to be working. Ike Davis is actually panning out. Maybe there is less pressure on the Mets now and so they can play easier.


I had been putting this post on hold since spring training but after seeing that next weeks SI cover will be featuring "the core four" of the Yankees (featuring Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, the second best SS on the Yankees and a guy who left and pitched with the Astros for a few years because the "classy" Yankees didnt want to meet his salary demands) I just couldnt resist.

Hey - "Ya Gotta Believe"

Thats what Im talking about! now lets get some offense

So thats what it feels like to win a series! Its been a while but maybe just maybe this series win is just what the doctor ordered. Three out four is a good start no matter who youre playing. Of course the one loss of the series is the one game i attended but thats a whole other story. The Mets are playing more consistent than they were. The starting pitching has been great (with the exception of John Maine). The bullpen has been great (with the exception of the one game i attended). The defense has been very solid. Thats what wins games. Defense and Pitching.
But eventually you have to hit. And there-within lies the problem. I think we can all agree that Carlos Beltran is not going to be a factor this year. He still hasnt been cleared for baseball activity. Whenever that happens its still 4 - 6 weeks from then until we can conceivably have him on the field. So at this point were looking at mid-June at the earliest.
Lets dissect the lineup:
Jose Reyes seems to finally be getting his legs back. He doesnt look like every line drive is going to knock him over.
Castillo is who he is - I forgot who i saw call him this but the nickname "Slappy McSingleton" fits him perfectly. Bottom line Mets fans is that were stuck with him. But hes not the problem either.

David Wright - Boy, David - what is going on with you? Is Citi Field really scaring you off? Say it aint so! When i was at the game the other night i ended up sitting right behind a little league and high school baseball coach. He was at the game with his wife and kids.After one of David Wrights at-bats - i hear him mutter "HoJo really messed up his swing" (except he used a different word for "messed"). So i start talking to him and he says he notices a big difference in D-Wrights swing. It seems like hes trying to pull everything and he has a little uppercut on his swing because of how his hands are positioned on the bat. I asked him if also noticed if his stance seems much lower and he agreed with me. The bottom line is that something is wrong with him. I have been his biggest supporter but after seeing him in person it just seems to me like hes messed up. I am sad to say this but if someone on the managerial staff has to go its Howard Johnson. I would hate to see it and it would be a sad day but if this offense doesnt start doing some damage i think its something that has to be done.
Jason Bay - Well, at least hes not carrying his offensive struggles onto the field. His defense has been very good. But when youre talking about Jason Bay and the best thing you can say about him is that his defense hasnt suffered then your in trouble. I have been against the move of Reyes to the 3 spot in the order but if it does happen then it will probably benefit J-Bay more than anyone assuming he hits 4. He should see lots of fastballs with Jose on first.
Jeff Francoeur - started out blazing and now slumping. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more of this as season goes on.
Ike Davis - early returns are good and it gives the fans something to cheer about. His hitting has looked good but I think his defense is what will really help the whole team. I cant tell if hes going to be a gold-glover but he will provide a steady natural first base presence. I think this will benefit Reyes and to a lesser extent Castillo but to a greater extent David Wright. Additionally this put Fernando Tatis where he should be - on the bench as a pinch hitter.
Rod Rarajas - Pretty much exactly what we have expected - an all or nothing hitter. He'll hit a couple out but finish the year with a .230 BA
Angel Pagan - I love Angel. Hes a great athlete who seems to care but he just doesnt have good baseball instincts. He dives when he shouldnt, doesnt dive when he should, takes bad routes to balls and makes too many baserunning mistakes. But as a hitter hes not bad and hes certainly better than Gary Matthews Jr. who just looked aweful at the plate.
BTW - look for Jerry to switch up the lineup this weekend as the Braves come to town.
I would love to see J-Bay get hot before i next visit Citi Field.

Wright and Ike - Jose and Bay

As we have already covered before I think we can all agree that thus far this year the Mets biggest problem has not been what we thought it would be - starting pitching. And thats a good thing. However the Mets do have issues. Namely in the lineup. Francouer - who started out great seems to be swinging at everything. But hes a bit streaky so well cut him some slack for now. The bigger problem is Jason Bay. I know hes a historically slow starter but he needs to pick up his game - and soon. Jason Bay (or Kason Kay as Elifrombrooklyn likes to call him) needs to start hitting the ball and hitting it hard. I started this post with the intention of writing about how this team goes as Jose Reyes goes and hes not going anywhere lately. But perhaps tonights 4 hit performance is Jose turning the corner. Maybe that off day did him some good.

Now about two other guys - Wright and Ike. Settle down everyone. We need to chill out. Even usually cool-headed Matt Cerrone of metsblog.com is "getting concerned with David Wright" Hes on pace for more walks than ever, hes stolen 5 bases and hit 3 HR. Yes he needs to be more consistent and he needs to calm down but he works hard and he will calm down.
And finally Ike Davis. The best thing about Davis so far has been the energy that he has given the Mets fan base. It just seems like the Mets have a little spring in their step since he was brought up. Theres a little more energy to the team and i think the team is feeding off the fans. (It is interesting to note however that on the day Davis got called up the most popular page of this website was one i had written months ago about the all time mets bust team - come on guys - show some confidence. Hopefully ill be putting him on my all time mets uniform number team to replace Dave Magadan at #29). If these guys all start coming around and Davis is as good advertised - look out because this is going to be one good team.
Oh (this is for you Miles) if youre looking for a good omen - Ike Davis went 2 - 4 in his Mets debut. Another Mets first baseman who went 2 - 4 in his Mets debut?  ....
Keith Hernandez

20 innings, A Tom Seaver connection and another turn through the rotation

Quite a week in Metsland.
Lets start from the 20 inning game. If youre reading this then you probably know all the details and have read all the interesting stats and tidbits about the game so i wont list them here.
However here are some things to think about from that game.
1) Major league teams need to rethink about when/how to use/bring in their "closer"(more on this in a coming post). K-Rod threw over 100 pitches  in the 20 inning marathon! Sounds a lot like Willie Randolph to me. And not in a good way.
2) How on earth did the Mets only score two runs in three innings off of position players?
3) This would have been an absolutely devastating loss if they would have lost. Its the type of game they have recently found ways to lose. But they won and a W is a W.
4) One stat - this ones "original" in that i didnt see anyone else write it. Mike Pelfrey (who, as you know, leads the team in both wins and saves) is now tied with Tom Seaver for career saves.

Moving on....
We have now had a decent sample size of the rotation. All i have to say is so far so good. Currently the Mets lead the NL in ERA. As you know i am tracking the starts of Ollie, Maine and Big Pelf. Maine, to me is the rotations biggest question mark. His velocity was slightly up in his last start but not enough and he throws way too many pitches. Ollie hopefully has turned a corner (as i predicted he would), and Pelfrey looks like hes turning into a true #2 starter. In the meantime the bullpen continues to look great.
All in all i think the Mets may be turning a corner here. This current 10 game homestand will be HUGE!
Lets wait and see what happens.
LETS GO METS!!

Where to bat Jose Reyes - Part II

I am a firm believer that Jose Reyes should be leading off games. In fact ive expressed this notion since spring training. I think he was put on this earth to bat leadoff for the New York Mets. Apparently im not alone in this notion either. One person who i knew agreed with me was Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com. Or at least that what i thought. In a post today he said hes "warming up to this" when referring to Jose Reyes batting third. Say it aint so Matt! Since i respect and value Matts opinion i decided to rethink it for myself. I havent changed my mind. Im not a statistics nut but i found a lineup analysis tool on-line from baseballmusings.com. I plugged in a lineup with Reyes batting first and one with Reyes batting third.
Here are my two lineups and their projected results.

*For all players i used 2009 statistics except for Jose Reyes and David Wright where i used statistics from 2008

Lineup #1
 Runs per game for above lineup: 4.777

Lineup #2

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.878


I still believe im right as this automatic generator doesnt take into account things like Reyes speed and what it does to the opposing pitcher. Or how he will have less opportunities to steal bases and hit triples. But it was still interesting to see.
By the way, in case you were wondering, here is the Mets optimal lineup (according to baseballmusings) - at least in terms of scoring the most runs. Take what you want from this. At least they agree with me on Luis Castillos spot in the order.

Runs per Game	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
5.140	David Wright	Angel Pagan	Fernando Tatis	Jason Bay	Jose Reyes	Rod Barajas	Jeff Francour	Johan santana	Luis Castillo

Go Big Pelf!

Nice job by Mike Pelfrey today. The Mets desperately needed this one and Pelfrey delivered. All spring he was telling everyone not to pay attention to results and that he was working on his secondary pitches. We should have listened.  i know its only two starts but if were going to get so down on the Mets for their start and if were going to be so hard on John Maine then we must give credit to Mike Pelfrey for his excellent start. Ive said - along with many other people - that so much of this year hinges on what Pelf, Maine and Ollie do. Well hopefully today was a good indication that Pelf is going to do his part to make sure the Mets have a good season. At the very least hes doing a good job of staying off my All time Mets bust team. You have to root for Pelfrey. The Mets drafted him and weve kind of seen him grow up. Hes had some ups and some downs and maybe now hes settling in to his role as a nice #2 starter. Of course we need to see continued success for an extended time, but today was a good day. In addition its obvious that Reyes is not comfortable yet. i guess thats what happens when you miss all of spring training and youve played a total of 4 games in 11 months. Also Francouer just continues to hit. Lets enjoy this because so far hes been the Mets best player since last July. Jason Bay had another RBI. Hes a notoriously slow starter so lets give him some time. But he better pick it up soon if im going to win my bet. All in all, a good day, so lets just enjoy it.

On a different note, tomorrow Oliver Perez goes up against Chris Carpenter.

Stay tuned ......

Frustrated

A couple of small point before i begin. You will notice that i have added two pages to this blog.
One page is tracking the combined amount of HR hit by David Wright and Jason Bay.
The other is tracking the starts of Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez.
Check them out for details on why im doing this.

1) John Maine - What happened John? What happened to the guy who threw the best pitched game in recent Mets memory? Is it the pitching coach? Was Rick Peterson better for Maine than Dan Warthen is? I doubt it. But i really think its time to do something. This is why i wanted Mejia to start in the Minors. I would have loved to be able to send Maine down now to work on his mechanics (a la Bobby Jones and Steve Traschel) and bring up Meija. No way he would be worse than Maine is now. Best case scenario Maine gets back on track and now you have "too much good pitching" ? Worst case .... well i think THIS is the worst case.
2) What in the world is going on with Carlos Beltran? The longer we go without hearing anything the more i wonder if there is a serious problem here. And if it is a serious problem AND we find out that Maine is injured then its time to redo the the medical staff and for the fans to demand that they do as such. You could chalk up last years injuries to a fluke but enough is enough already!
3) The only thing firing Jerry Manual would do is to shake things up a bit, but come on - a new manager would have the same players and the same problems. He would still have an ace and 4 #4 starters.
4) How long before people start freaking out that the Mets have gotten exactly ONE RBI out of the cleanup spot this year.
5) If we are really going to get on people for their slow starts then lets at least point out that David Wright is on pace for 46 HR!

Week in review - Week 1

Heres my week one Hero/Goat - My hero for the week is Jeff Francoeur. Howard Johnson said in the offseason that hes going to have a big year and he certainly has started it out big. 538 OBP for the week 4 BB and 2 K - not bad. An honorable mention should go to the bullpen which has been great. Johan had a bad game yesterday which we would hope would be few and far between but yesterday was one of them. The bullpen was very good though. If the Mets can get the usual Johan plus the way Neice and Big Pelf pitched this week and the bullpen can keep up what theyve been doing then pitching is not going to be as big of an issue as i thought it might be.
My goat of the week is Mike Jacobs. Yes - he hit a HR yesterday. But why do I have a terrible feeling that he he'll hit 20 HR and they'll all come in games that mean nothing. What i mean is that he'll strike out with 2 outs and the Mets down a run but a HR with up 4 or down 5. More than just not clutch - worthless. I would also mention Ollie - who better get his act together otherwise i have a feeling he'll be heading to the bullpen - but I feel like ill have so many opportunities to name him the goat of the week that ill just save it.
2  - 4 is not a good start. The schedule makers were very kind to the Mets and gave them an opportunity to have the strong start they so desperately wanted. The Marlins and the Nationals. They easily could have expected a 4- 2 record. Instead here they stand at 2 -4 and Santana just pitched. But lets try to remember that it is just 6 games into a very long season.
And finally - welcome back Jose - we missed you!

First Impressions

Last night i watched my first Mets game of the season.
I did not like what i saw. Here are some of my thoughts.
First the bad:
1) John Maine did not look good. His fastball was all over the place and the Marlins were hitting his off speed stuff. When he did hit with his fastball the Marlins teed off on it. (Boy, Hanley sure didnt make Citi Field look like a tough place to hit HR did he?)
2) The Mets should just stop putting lefthanded pitchers who wear 47 on the mound against the Marlins. Nothing good can come from this.
3) Mejia. Is everybody happy? The kid should be in the minors working on things like how to make his changeup not look like a John Maine fastball. (seriously Maines fastball last night reached 89 and Mejias changeup was 88) And i didnt like the whole K-Rod-esque way that he pointed to the sky when he done either. Save it for when you get through an inning untouched.
4) If the Mets are going to have the same baserunning problems as last year we are in big trouble. The Mets need to execute! Tatis getting thrown out in that situation is inexcusable. Hes supposed to be a veteran.
5) My goodness! please lets just cut our losses with Mike Jacobs. This is our cleanup hitter? How on earth did Jerry Manuel think it would be a good idea to give him more at bats than Jason Bay?
6) Has there ever been a game in which more people made their Major League debut?

Now the good:
1) ITS ONLY ONE GAME! I know it. Maine wasnt good but alot of guys struggle early on so ill give him another chance.
2) Jason Bay looks goooood! great hustle every at bat and a darn good hitter too.
3) K-Rod - looking good early on.
4) Defense looks good so far.
5) Jose Reyes hopefully back on Saturday. He will change the whole look of the lineup.
6) Mejias fastball is definitely major league ready